No clear path forward for health deal

axios.com

December 19, 2024 1:21 pm

The collapse of the continuing resolution has seriously threatened an elaborately negotiated health care package that touches virtually every medical industry.

Why it matters: After weeks of intense bipartisan and bicameral talks, and months of laying the groundwork, the package’s major reforms, reauthorizations of existing laws and extensions of funding streams could all be scrapped.

Driving the news: The sources we talked to today do not see a clear path forward for the health care package, and no one’s sure what will happen.

  • Casualties would include major changes to how PBMs are paid, a hospital outpatient billing provision, drug patent reforms and vouchers to streamline reviews of drugs for rare pediatric diseases.
  • Congress would likely still have to pass at least short-term extensions of some must-pass expiring items affecting community health center funding and an extension of Medicare telehealth flexibilities.
  • Then, there’s language that would allow lawmakers to opt out of their ACA marketplace insurance and return to the Federal Employee Health Benefits Program, along with a pay raise. Both could likely fall out if there’s a deal on a skinny CR.

What they’re saying: “Members got greedy and tried to hang too many ornaments on the tree; now it seems to have fallen over,” Raymond James analyst Chris Meekins told Axios.

Options for what happens next include a pared-down CR with some disaster relief for farmers and language raising the debt ceiling, as President-elect Trump is insisting.

  • Debt limit language could also be added to the existing CR, or lawmakers could opt for a clean CR that’s silent on it. The possibility of a shutdown looms in any scenario.

Friction point: Don’t discount that Democrats will likely still need to deliver some votes on any compromise, considering the unruliness and potential defections of the House Republican conference and the 60-vote threshold in the Senate.

  • But Democrats are pretty angry today at Republicans for reneging on their bipartisan deal, so that may be a heavy lift for them.

If another bipartisan compromise emerges, that would leave some opportunity for health items to catch a ride.

  • Rep. Nicole Malliotakis wrote on X that Congress should take a standalone vote on the health care package, pointing to the PBM reforms she said would lower drug costs and safeguard community pharmacies.

What’s next: If the health package is dropped, another chance could arise in March if there is another government funding bill. But it’s unclear if the odds would be any better, or if priorities shift.